Definition(s)
Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Type of quantitative risk assessment that considers possible combinations of occurrences with associated consequences, each with an associated probability or probability distribution.
Sample Usage: The engineers conducted a probabilistic risk assessment to determine the risk of an accident resulting from a series of compounding failures.
Annotation:
- Probabilistic risk assessments are typically performed on complex technological systems with tools such as fault and event trees and Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate security risks and/or accidental failures.
- For some types of risk, like those involving human volition, the probability of occurrence of an event may not be independent of the consequences and, in fact, may be a function of the consequences.
Source: DHS Risk Lexicon, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 2010 Edition. September 2010 Regulatory Guidance