Bayesian Probability

The process of evaluating the probability of a hypothesis through 1) the specification of a prior probability and 2) modification of the prior probability by incorporation of observed information to create an updated posterior probability.

Sample Usage: The analyst applied Bayesian probability techniques to incorporate new evidence and update her estimate of the threat probability.

Annotation: This concept is also referred to as Bayesian probabilistic inference. Bayesian probability evaluates likelihoods as probabilities rather than frequencies.

Source: DHS Risk Lexicon, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 2010 Edition. September 2010 Regulatory Guidance

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